Deliberation with a Deadline: The Influenza Vaccine Composition Decision∗

We analyze deliberation strategies in a setting with a production deadline. In this dynamic decision problem, there is a choice between two courses of action and a third alternative of delaying the commitment to gather more information about the prevalence or popularity of each action. The deadline affects the cost of information gathering, which in this case is the value that is sacrificed by reducing the interval for production. We illustrate the model with the annual influenza vaccine composition decision: deciding between strains of the virus to include, which must happen in a timely manner to allow time for vaccine production before the flu season begins. Drawing on the public nature of the deliberations surrounding this issue, we suggest ways to improve the decision-making process. We describe the links between this public health decision and a firm’s choice in the face of emerging trends.